Greetings from the Slovenian Environmental Agency.
Today's updated meteorological and hydrological warning will be
provided by Branko Gregorčič and Janez Polajnar.
Representative from the Water Directorate Rok Penec
and Civil Protection Commander Srečko Šestan are here as well.
They will share their information, so Branko, please.
Welcome. I would start by giving an overview of the current situation.
As expected, the storms started to circle along the western coast of
Istria in the morning hours, also travelling across Slovenian Istria
towards Goriška and Posočje.
This is the first event, which is still ongoing.
We expect this storm activity to continue for a few hours mainly over
western Slovenia, but then in the early afternoon and later in the
afternoon and evening, the bulk of the activity will move mainly over
central Slovenia.
So the area we are most concerned about is somewhere between Snežnik
and the Kamnik Alps, where the heaviest showers are expected in the
afternoon and evening.
In these areas, we can of course expect a rapid increase
in torrential downpours.
Due to the vulnerability of the areas affected by flooding earlier
this month, we have issued the highest level of warning for these
areas, while the rest of the country has maintained an
amber weather warning.
Due to the cyclone that will persist over the Gulf of Genoa, we
are expecting heavy precipitation again tomorrow, especially in the
second half of the day. Although it will not be as extreme as we can
expect today, we have also raised the weather warning for most of
Slovenia by one level for tomorrow, due to the expected rain and local
thunderstorms. So the event will take place in two parts, the first
one this afternoon and evening, where there could be some
really intense downpours, and also some wind and hail storms in the
east of Slovenia.
Tomorrow's event is more likely to cover most of the country at the
same time, i.e.
rain. Moderate to heavy rain with a chance of isolated showers due to
thunderstorms. But then on Wednesday the situation slowly calms
down and the second half of the week shows partly clear and
unproblematic weather.
Thank you very much. Janez, I would also like to ask for a hydrological
warning.
Hello! So, as we have heard, the event will be held in two parts.
Today's part of the day will be more intense, so we can also expect
an increase in torrential downpours and backwater flooding, especially
in basins such as those mentioned before.
These are the basins between Snežnik and the Kamnik Alps, the
Kamnik-Savinja Alps and the Karavanke Alps.
The centre of gravity of the torrential events may thus be in the
Ljubljanica river basins, i.e.
in this part of Notranjska, the inner part of the Ljubljanica basin,
through the Polhograjski Dolomites into the Škofjeloško hills and then
into Gorenjska.
In fact, these tributaries of the Sava, the left tributaries of the
Sava from Jesenice via the Tržiška Bistrica and the Kamnik Bistrica towards
the Savinja. Torrential outbreaks can be expected in all these
valleys. And of course elsewhere in the aforementioned mountains.
Of course, because of these altered conditions in these affected
parts of the river basins, we do not know exactly how the water will
flow, so that is where the greatest caution will be needed.
It seems that the larger rivers like the Sava and the Savinja will only drain
this rainwater in their riverbeds.
The focus of hydrological developments today will be on the
tributaries of the major rivers and on these torrential watercourses
and, of course, on flooding into backwaters and rainwater.
Well, tomorrow's events will see the rain fall
on an already soaked up ground.
This means that in these vulnerable areas, such as the Savinjska Valley,
the Mežica Valley, we do not know exactly how this rainfall will drain.
In fact, it is these vulnerable areas that concern us most.
But major rivers will also rise, for example the Drava and the Mura
are also expected to spill, as shown in these normal flood areas
during the day.
It looks like the Sava and the lower Savinja are expected to stay
in their channels.
Thank you, Janez.
I would ask the representative of the Water Directorate to share his statement.
Thank you very much. Greetings.
On the basis of today's hydrological forecast, the Slovenian
Water Directorate will, of course, implement to the fullest extent
possible all those water management measures that are strictly necessary
to ensure the flow of water.
Of course, as announced, there will also be a greater degree of
vigilance over those torrential tributaries that could cause
problems, as well as all the machinery.
In the event of a sudden rise in water levels, these areas will be
targeted, in particular to prevent water from damaging free
infrastructure, other infrastructure and human health and lives.
Thank you, Rok Penec.
I would also like to ask the Civil Protection Commander, Sreček Šestan,
for his statement.
Greetings. I've been repeating myself all month, but I don't think
it will do any harm to do it again. All the residents, especially in those
vulnerable areas from the beginning of the month
are warned to follow what is happening,
that they are monitoring the radar picture, that they retreat
in time. Because that is about the only action we can take at this
point in time for this type of torrential flooding.
I know that they did it on the fourth of August,
and I am grateful to them for that.
Of course, I do not exclude other parts of Slovenia, where there may
also be such outbreaks, as Janez says, so attention in other areas
will not be superfluous, and I wish that we all spend this day and
tomorrow as normally as possible.
Thank you very much. Thank you.
Perhaps some further clarification is needed.
Does anyone have any questions?
Can we compare this event with the one that took place
at the beginning of August?
Yes, we will only be able to compare these two events once this one is
behind us, because we will be able to compare the actual measured, say,
rainfall amounts and intensities.
In a way, they are related.
Both are more autumnal or wintery weather situations with a cyclone
over the Mediterranean.
The cyclone is now a little deeper, but it won't be moving towards us as
fast as first indicated.
So what we're really worried about here is a little bit more prolonged
pours, especially this afternoon and this evening, but with a
different wind height direction.
If the prevailing airflow was then south-westerly, today it will be
more southerly.
So those rainfall maxima that develop somewhere over Kvarner and
then travel northwards from the south may still cover slightly
different areas than they did at the beginning of August.
When there is such a combination of a cyclone and a convective
precipitation type at summer temperatures, it is very difficult
to estimate the actual amount of precipitation that will fall.
Models can also vary considerably and there is considerable
uncertainty in the forecast.
Out of an abundance of caution, of course, we have actually gone some
way to issuing warnings of comparable severity to those issued
at the time.
We hope, however, that this event will pass with fewer consequences.
But we cannot be sure in advance.
As far as the hydrological situation is concerned, we can say that we are
faced with some unknowns.
The floods at the beginning of August changed the landscape
considerably, altering river channels and their hinterlands.
We do not know exactly how the water will flow in these parts of
the river basins, and that is what worries us most, that we do not
actually know at the moment how the water will flow.
However, we imagine that if the channels are no longer established
as they were before, if there are landslides, avalanches, large
deposits of shallows and floating, compound events can occur.
This means that rainfall causes landslides, carrying sediments into
riverbeds, and flooding along such watercourses can be unpredictable.
Thank you.
Any other questions?
Some of our measuring devices were washed away and how we managed to
replace them?
Not all of them. We have not yet been able to replace all the
metering devices. But we have restored the data stream from most
of the stations that were damaged.
I think 5 stations have been physically taken away and we will
get those back up as quickly as possible.
Thank you.
We at the Agency will continue to monitor meteorological and hydrological data.
Tomorrow at 11:00 in the same place, we will see you again
with updates. Thank you very much for now.