Dear media representatives, welcome to today's press conference
after the 122nd regular session of the government.
The Stability Program 2022 and the National Reform Program 2022
were approved at today's session.
Today we are joined by the Minister of Finance, Andrej Šircelj, M.Sc.,
to whom I will soon give the floor.
After his introductory speech, there will be time for your questions.
Minister, please.
Hello and thank you very much for giving me the floor,
the opportunity to present both materials,
which I must say were adopted today,
in times of extreme risk.
Economic, financial and, of course, security risks are increasing
and they have increased.
We used to talk about a crisis every five and ten years,
today, there is a new crisis after six months.
This refers to the war in Ukraine.
Before that, we had a health crisis related to the epidemic.
This, of course, is also reflected in the indicators.
This crisis certainly brings additional risks.
These risks are indefinite,
mainly because we don’t know how long
and with what intensity the war in Ukraine will take place or last.
We all hope it will be as short as possible.
Nevertheless, the first variable in this regard
is related to the humanitarian field,
especially in relation to all people leaving Ukraine.
According to some data, there are already about 7 million of them.
I would like to say that in this context
and in such circumstances
the adoption of the 2022 Stability Program and Reform Program
took place.
There was a delay because of that.
Today, we sent the Stability Program to the Fiscal Council
with an answer and an apology,
and of course to the European Commission.
The first thing that matters
is that the fiscal space is enabled despite the risks.
In other words, the Stability Program follows
all recommendations given by international organisations,
the International Monetary Fund and European Commission.
In May the European Commission
will talk about what kind of fiscal framework
is projected for 2023.
Whether the withdrawal clause will continue to apply in 2023 or not.
Even if it doesn't,
the transition to fiscal rules will be gradual
and a fiscal framework will be possible.
The Stability Program is also based on IMAD data
on economic developments forecasts.
Prior to that, the government addressed economic developments
or the material that was suspended at one of the previous meetings.
The debate was suspended mainly because
there weren't enough ministers present at the government meeting.
With IMAD forecasting economic growth of 4.2%,
the balance of the government sector by 2025 was also calculated.
Here we can talk about deficit or surplus.
I am talking about the fact that with unchanged policy,
given the assumption
that the fiscal, economic, financial policies will be as they are today,
the general government deficit will be significantly lower.
This indicates that there has been a very strong rebound in the economy
after the crisis and, of course, the economic growth.
Thus, the deficit will be gradually reduced by 2025,
when it is projected to amount to 1.7% of GDP.
In 2020, this deficit was 7.8%,
in 2021 5.2% of GDP,
in 2022 it is expected to be 4.1%,
while the deficit projected for 2023
will already be below 3%. 2.97 rounded to 3%
is in the stability program. Which means
we would actually meet the Maastricht criteria in 2023.
As said, the deficit of the government sector is expected
to reduce to 1.7% of GDP by 2025,
which in fact means that, on the other hand,
if we look at revenue and expenditure,
revenues are expected to increase between 2022 and 2025
on average by about 3% per year,
expenditures on average by about 1%.
The same goes for government debt.
In 2022, according to all known data,
it amounted to 79.8%
and is expected to be lowered to 68% of GDP by 2025.
This also indicates a reduction in debt, which is below average
in the European Union and which indicates a decrease,
which means a reduction in public debt relative to GDP.
Above all, the fact that we can talk about sound finances,
sound economy, which was acknowledged
by international credit rating agencies.
A few days ago, Moody's
confirmed our assessment from the previous period
or the previous assessment.
Even if we are talking about individual sectors,
I can say that both the health and pension funds are stable.
We can talk about increasing funding for human health,
including investments.
The share of money for pensions from the budget is also increasing,
but as I mentioned, these revenues are perfectly stable
and will grow well into the next period.
I would also like to mention the financial system and its stability.
I mean mainly the deposits that are growing
and already amount to over € 25 billion,
which is extremely high.
I expect the next government to accept
certain optimisation measures
of these deposits,
especially in terms of safe investment in the future.
In the National Reform Program,
the fundamental reforms awaiting the state are identified.
No matter which government will rule,
certain reforms or changes will have to be made
in the field of pensions, in the field of health,
in the field of long-term care
and also, as we have already announced,
according to the direction in which Europe is heading,
in the field of green transition and digital development.
The most sensitive topic today is inflation
and of course inflation expectations,
coupled with monetary policy lead.
It is lead by the ECB, from Frankfurt.
We expect some tensions this year.
Especially when it comes to adjusting the monetary policy
to the current situation.
Slovenia is among those countries,
where inflation doesn't play a big role.
The price of energy sources has the biggest effect on inflation.
And the price of food, of course.
The price of energy sources
in regards to its inflation share
is more important,
because of multiplicative effects of the price itself.
The question is, how to balance the inflation.
And how to guarantee
a social component,
or social security to those, most affected by the inflation.
To summarize:
This government prepared
during the crisis, the pandemic and the epidemic
a comprehensive fiscal plan
that revitalized our economy
which is one of the best in Europe.
It provided economic growth
and the lowest unemployment rate in Slovenian history.
These are great cornerstones for Slovenia's further development.
We have to take into the account the risks I've mentioned today
and the risk of inflation
and war.
These are the main risks.
And of course the risk of potential repeat
of an epidemic.
So much for now, I'm of course available
for any questions.
Dear Minister, thank you for this presentation.
We have a question already. Sandra Boršič, 24ur.
Can you hear me?
Did the government discuss energy sources?
How will Slovenia pay for Russian gas? Will we pay in roubles?
We see what happened in Poland and Bulgaria. Any comment?
We've discussed energy prices and their effect on inflation.
I've said this already.
About Slovenia's
payments for gas ...
The country does not pay for the gas directly.
It is paid by the buyers,
using the financial system,
namely banks.
There are sanctions in place
and I believe Slovenia has to pay for the gas
taking the sanctions into the account.
Thank you.
Dnevnik.
Just checking if we can hear each other.
Can you hear me? -Now, we can.
Mr. Minister, you've mentioned you discussed this report now,
because some ministers were not in attendance before.
Some weeks ago, we heard a different story.
Minister Počivalšek said some parameters were missing
and that some additional analysis is needed.
What is the truth? Why did this report
come out only after the elections?
You're right.
On one hand, there weren't enough ministers in attendance.
That was the main reason the session was cancelled.
It is true that we've discussed the mentioned report,
that several questions have been raised,
I have many myself as well and some comments, too.
I'll mention them again.
Looking a few reports back,
lower economic growth was projected.
The October report for 2021 said
the projected growth is 6%. The actual growth was 8,1%.
This is a 2% margin.
As a Minister of Finance, I need precise projections.
The projections were always lower than the actual growth.
At least for the last 2 years. This applies to international reports too.
The system conveys either pessimism or optimism.
Such data
can lead to wrong decisions
by the government or the ministry that suggests certain fiscal measures.
If the growth is lower, the fiscal space is bigger
and the Minister suggests bigger spending,
pro-cycle etc.
And then it turns out that the projection was bigger.
Who is responsible for this?
Probably the Minister or the government that lead
a wrong fiscal policy
based on the actual economic growth.
I can confirm
that I was thoroughly professional and the government
want an exact projection of the economic growth.
But I agree that the risk of wrong projections
in the time of crisis such as an epidemic
or the war is bigger.
Umar, IMF and OECD
try to take these events into the account.
They have severe financial consequences.
There's no big story here.
Only what I've already discussed.
The risks are bigger and more important.
I hope that this growth is the real deal.
But it also shows pessimism and optimism in the society.
I wonder what would happen if the projections were higher.
I don't believe this caused a major catastrophe.
That's it, thank you. -Thank you, Minister.
There are no further questions.
If that's all, I'd like to conclude this press conference.
Thank you for your time and interest.