WEBVTT

00:00:01.337 --> 00:00:08.159
Dear media representatives,
welcome to today's press conference

00:00:08.279 --> 00:00:11.191
after the 122nd regular session
of the government.

00:00:11.311 --> 00:00:15.826
The Stability Program 2022
and the National Reform Program 2022

00:00:15.947 --> 00:00:19.064
were approved at today's session.

00:00:19.618 --> 00:00:22.392
Today we are joined by the Minister
of Finance, Andrej Šircelj, M.Sc.,

00:00:22.513 --> 00:00:24.841
to whom I will soon give the floor.

00:00:24.962 --> 00:00:28.310
After his introductory speech, there
will be time for your questions.

00:00:28.431 --> 00:00:30.431
Minister, please.

00:00:34.902 --> 00:00:38.200
Hello and thank you very much
for giving me the floor,

00:00:38.321 --> 00:00:44.082
the opportunity
to present both materials,

00:00:44.703 --> 00:00:50.745
which I must say were adopted today,

00:00:51.301 --> 00:00:55.142
in times of extreme risk.

00:00:55.714 --> 00:01:02.996
Economic, financial and, of course,
security risks are increasing

00:01:03.117 --> 00:01:05.117
and they have increased.

00:01:06.004 --> 00:01:10.409
We used to talk about a crisis
every five and ten years,

00:01:10.530 --> 00:01:14.599
today, there is a new crisis
after six months.

00:01:15.196 --> 00:01:17.892
This refers to the war in Ukraine.

00:01:18.013 --> 00:01:23.290
Before that, we had a health
crisis related to the epidemic.

00:01:23.411 --> 00:01:27.772
This, of course,
is also reflected in the indicators.

00:01:27.893 --> 00:01:34.400
This crisis certainly
brings additional risks.

00:01:35.319 --> 00:01:39.960
These risks are indefinite,

00:01:40.081 --> 00:01:43.225
mainly because
we don’t know how long

00:01:43.346 --> 00:01:50.742
and with what intensity the war
in Ukraine will take place or last.

00:01:50.863 --> 00:01:55.104
We all hope it will be
as short as possible.

00:01:55.225 --> 00:02:02.367
Nevertheless,
the first variable in this regard

00:02:02.488 --> 00:02:05.484
is related
to the humanitarian field,

00:02:05.605 --> 00:02:11.283
especially in relation
to all people leaving Ukraine.

00:02:11.404 --> 00:02:16.736
According to some data, there are
already about 7 million of them.

00:02:17.111 --> 00:02:21.311
I would like to say
that in this context

00:02:21.432 --> 00:02:25.597
and in such circumstances

00:02:26.190 --> 00:02:34.173
the adoption of the 2022 Stability
Program and Reform Program

00:02:34.617 --> 00:02:37.104
took place.

00:02:37.412 --> 00:02:43.732
There was
a delay because of that.

00:02:43.853 --> 00:02:47.580
Today, we sent the Stability
Program to the Fiscal Council

00:02:47.701 --> 00:02:50.235
with an answer and an apology,

00:02:50.356 --> 00:02:53.841
and of course
to the European Commission.

00:02:53.962 --> 00:02:57.193
The first thing that matters

00:02:57.314 --> 00:03:05.096
is that the fiscal space
is enabled despite the risks.

00:03:05.217 --> 00:03:10.897
In other words,
the Stability Program follows

00:03:11.018 --> 00:03:16.489
all recommendations given
by international organisations,

00:03:16.610 --> 00:03:21.637
the International Monetary Fund
and European Commission.

00:03:23.103 --> 00:03:28.099
In May the European Commission

00:03:28.220 --> 00:03:33.188
will talk about
what kind of fiscal framework

00:03:33.309 --> 00:03:36.324
is projected for 2023.

00:03:36.445 --> 00:03:42.238
Whether the withdrawal clause will
continue to apply in 2023 or not.

00:03:42.359 --> 00:03:46.431
Even if it doesn't,

00:03:46.552 --> 00:03:52.007
the transition to fiscal rules
will be gradual

00:03:52.128 --> 00:03:55.399
and a fiscal framework
will be possible.

00:03:57.126 --> 00:04:03.130
The Stability Program
is also based on IMAD data

00:04:03.662 --> 00:04:07.177
on economic developments
forecasts.

00:04:07.298 --> 00:04:12.755
Prior to that, the government
addressed economic developments

00:04:13.580 --> 00:04:21.227
or the material that was suspended
at one of the previous meetings.

00:04:21.348 --> 00:04:25.350
The debate was suspended
mainly because

00:04:25.471 --> 00:04:30.979
there weren't enough ministers
present at the government meeting.

00:04:31.550 --> 00:04:36.909
With IMAD forecasting
economic growth of 4.2%,

00:04:37.030 --> 00:04:44.796
the balance of the government
sector by 2025 was also calculated.

00:04:44.917 --> 00:04:49.490
Here we can talk
about deficit or surplus.

00:04:49.611 --> 00:04:55.447
I am talking about the fact
that with unchanged policy,

00:04:55.568 --> 00:04:59.074
given the assumption

00:04:59.195 --> 00:05:07.100
that the fiscal, economic, financial
policies will be as they are today,

00:05:07.221 --> 00:05:10.950
the general government deficit
will be significantly lower.

00:05:11.071 --> 00:05:18.091
This indicates that there has been
a very strong rebound in the economy

00:05:18.400 --> 00:05:23.488
after the crisis and, of course,
the economic growth.

00:05:23.609 --> 00:05:30.469
Thus, the deficit will be
gradually reduced by 2025,

00:05:30.590 --> 00:05:35.181
when it is projected
to amount to 1.7% of GDP.

00:05:35.302 --> 00:05:42.225
In 2020, this deficit was 7.8%,

00:05:42.398 --> 00:05:48.399
in 2021 5.2% of GDP,

00:05:50.078 --> 00:05:54.019
in 2022 it is expected to be 4.1%,

00:05:54.140 --> 00:05:57.536
while the deficit
projected for 2023

00:05:57.657 --> 00:06:04.779
will already be below 3%.
2.97 rounded to 3%

00:06:04.900 --> 00:06:07.734
is in the stability program.
Which means

00:06:07.855 --> 00:06:13.294
we would actually meet
the Maastricht criteria in 2023.

00:06:13.415 --> 00:06:16.384
As said, the deficit
of the government sector is expected

00:06:16.505 --> 00:06:22.474
to reduce to 1.7% of GDP by 2025,

00:06:22.595 --> 00:06:26.146
which in fact means
that, on the other hand,

00:06:26.267 --> 00:06:28.784
if we look at revenue
and expenditure,

00:06:28.905 --> 00:06:34.501
revenues are expected to increase
between 2022 and 2025

00:06:34.622 --> 00:06:37.454
on average by about 3% per year,

00:06:37.575 --> 00:06:41.776
expenditures on average by about 1%.

00:06:42.531 --> 00:06:46.880
The same goes for government debt.

00:06:47.001 --> 00:06:53.226
In 2022,
according to all known data,

00:06:53.347 --> 00:06:57.265
it amounted to 79.8%

00:06:57.385 --> 00:07:05.167
and is expected to be lowered
to 68% of GDP by 2025.

00:07:05.288 --> 00:07:10.743
This also indicates a reduction
in debt, which is below average

00:07:12.189 --> 00:07:19.634
in the European Union
and which indicates a decrease,

00:07:19.755 --> 00:07:24.879
which means a reduction
in public debt relative to GDP.

00:07:25.000 --> 00:07:28.787
Above all, the fact that we
can talk about sound finances,

00:07:28.908 --> 00:07:32.202
sound economy,
which was acknowledged

00:07:32.323 --> 00:07:35.612
by international
credit rating agencies.

00:07:35.736 --> 00:07:38.714
A few days ago, Moody's

00:07:38.835 --> 00:07:44.699
confirmed our assessment
from the previous period

00:07:44.820 --> 00:07:48.205
or the previous assessment.

00:07:48.627 --> 00:07:52.386
Even if we are talking
about individual sectors,

00:07:52.507 --> 00:08:00.122
I can say that both the health
and pension funds are stable.

00:08:00.266 --> 00:08:06.958
We can talk about increasing
funding for human health,

00:08:07.739 --> 00:08:09.739
including investments.

00:08:10.408 --> 00:08:17.299
The share of money for pensions
from the budget is also increasing,

00:08:17.420 --> 00:08:21.696
but as I mentioned,
these revenues are perfectly stable

00:08:21.817 --> 00:08:25.988
and will grow
well into the next period.

00:08:26.285 --> 00:08:32.565
I would also like to mention the
financial system and its stability.

00:08:32.686 --> 00:08:37.608
I mean mainly the deposits
that are growing

00:08:37.729 --> 00:08:42.670
and already amount
to over € 25 billion,

00:08:42.791 --> 00:08:45.791
which is extremely high.

00:08:45.912 --> 00:08:53.398
I expect
the next government to accept

00:08:53.653 --> 00:08:59.506
certain optimisation measures

00:08:59.627 --> 00:09:02.895
of these deposits,

00:09:03.016 --> 00:09:08.990
especially in terms of
safe investment in the future.

00:09:09.688 --> 00:09:13.779
In the National Reform Program,

00:09:13.900 --> 00:09:19.401
the fundamental reforms
awaiting the state are identified.

00:09:20.299 --> 00:09:25.775
No matter
which government will rule,

00:09:25.896 --> 00:09:31.279
certain reforms or changes
will have to be made

00:09:31.400 --> 00:09:35.403
in the field of pensions,
in the field of health,

00:09:35.524 --> 00:09:38.429
in the field of long-term care

00:09:39.134 --> 00:09:43.892
and also,
as we have already announced,

00:09:44.013 --> 00:09:47.963
according to the direction
in which Europe is heading,

00:09:48.084 --> 00:09:53.903
in the field of green transition
and digital development.

00:09:54.735 --> 00:09:59.955
The most sensitive
topic today is inflation

00:10:00.480 --> 00:10:04.983
and of course
inflation expectations,

00:10:05.237 --> 00:10:09.161
coupled with monetary policy lead.

00:10:10.009 --> 00:10:15.343
It is lead by the ECB,
from Frankfurt.

00:10:16.742 --> 00:10:22.340
We expect some tensions this year.

00:10:22.461 --> 00:10:28.046
Especially when it comes to
adjusting the monetary policy

00:10:28.110 --> 00:10:30.194
to the current situation.

00:10:30.814 --> 00:10:35.293
Slovenia is among those countries,

00:10:35.611 --> 00:10:40.672
where inflation
doesn't play a big role.

00:10:41.111 --> 00:10:46.178
The price of energy sources
has the biggest effect on inflation.

00:10:46.361 --> 00:10:48.991
And the price of food, of course.

00:10:49.112 --> 00:10:56.418
The price of energy sources

00:10:56.861 --> 00:11:00.099
in regards to its inflation share

00:11:00.862 --> 00:11:02.542
is more important,

00:11:02.833 --> 00:11:07.685
because of multiplicative effects
of the price itself.

00:11:08.222 --> 00:11:16.216
The question is,
how to balance the inflation.

00:11:16.726 --> 00:11:22.581
And how to guarantee

00:11:24.112 --> 00:11:27.072
a social component,

00:11:27.496 --> 00:11:35.083
or social security to those,
most affected by the inflation.

00:11:37.494 --> 00:11:39.924
To summarize:

00:11:40.483 --> 00:11:44.870
This government prepared

00:11:44.991 --> 00:11:48.474
during the crisis,
the pandemic and the epidemic

00:11:48.942 --> 00:11:52.534
a comprehensive fiscal plan

00:11:52.727 --> 00:11:55.857
that revitalized our economy

00:11:56.199 --> 00:11:59.350
which is one of the best in Europe.

00:11:59.713 --> 00:12:03.263
It provided economic growth

00:12:03.476 --> 00:12:10.146
and the lowest unemployment
rate in Slovenian history.

00:12:10.862 --> 00:12:17.280
These are great cornerstones
for Slovenia's further development.

00:12:17.861 --> 00:12:24.102
We have to take into the account
the risks I've mentioned today

00:12:24.862 --> 00:12:29.889
and the risk of inflation

00:12:30.263 --> 00:12:33.635
and war.

00:12:34.429 --> 00:12:39.214
These are the main risks.

00:12:39.429 --> 00:12:45.338
And of course the risk
of potential repeat

00:12:45.611 --> 00:12:50.908
of an epidemic.

00:12:51.366 --> 00:12:56.969
So much for now,
I'm of course available

00:12:57.822 --> 00:13:03.976
for any questions.

00:13:05.490 --> 00:13:08.879
Dear Minister,
thank you for this presentation.

00:13:09.045 --> 00:13:14.522
We have a question already.
Sandra Boršič, 24ur.

00:13:20.562 --> 00:13:22.162
Can you hear me?

00:13:25.202 --> 00:13:29.744
Did the government discuss
energy sources?

00:13:30.055 --> 00:13:35.249
How will Slovenia pay for Russian
gas? Will we pay in roubles?

00:13:35.370 --> 00:13:38.538
We see what happened in Poland
and Bulgaria. Any comment?

00:13:41.290 --> 00:13:46.002
We've discussed energy prices
and their effect on inflation.

00:13:46.207 --> 00:13:48.844
I've said this already.

00:13:50.340 --> 00:13:56.934
About Slovenia's

00:13:57.709 --> 00:14:00.875
payments for gas ...

00:14:01.601 --> 00:14:04.524
The country does not
pay for the gas directly.

00:14:05.102 --> 00:14:08.386
It is paid by the buyers,

00:14:08.854 --> 00:14:12.334
using the financial system,

00:14:13.352 --> 00:14:14.952
namely banks.

00:14:15.399 --> 00:14:19.720
There are sanctions in place

00:14:19.995 --> 00:14:26.368
and I believe Slovenia
has to pay for the gas

00:14:26.824 --> 00:14:29.391
taking the sanctions
into the account.

00:14:31.595 --> 00:14:33.195
Thank you.

00:14:33.653 --> 00:14:35.765
Dnevnik.

00:14:43.196 --> 00:14:46.396
Just checking
if we can hear each other.

00:14:48.122 --> 00:14:51.113
Can you hear me?
-Now, we can.

00:14:51.812 --> 00:14:56.690
Mr. Minister, you've mentioned
you discussed this report now,

00:14:57.072 --> 00:15:02.655
because some ministers
were not in attendance before.

00:15:03.131 --> 00:15:07.081
Some weeks ago,
we heard a different story.

00:15:07.505 --> 00:15:12.789
Minister Počivalšek said
some parameters were missing

00:15:12.910 --> 00:15:18.209
and that some additional
analysis is needed.

00:15:18.452 --> 00:15:23.193
What is the truth?
Why did this report

00:15:23.822 --> 00:15:28.002
come out only after the elections?

00:15:29.695 --> 00:15:33.905
You're right.

00:15:34.600 --> 00:15:41.573
On one hand, there weren't
enough ministers in attendance.

00:15:41.694 --> 00:15:47.792
That was the main reason
the session was cancelled.

00:15:48.072 --> 00:15:55.843
It is true that we've discussed
the mentioned report,

00:15:56.352 --> 00:15:59.472
that several questions
have been raised,

00:16:00.392 --> 00:16:05.334
I have many myself as well
and some comments, too.

00:16:05.546 --> 00:16:08.594
I'll mention them again.

00:16:12.148 --> 00:16:16.649
Looking a few reports back,

00:16:17.142 --> 00:16:20.248
lower economic growth
was projected.

00:16:20.642 --> 00:16:26.253
The October report
for 2021 said

00:16:26.476 --> 00:16:30.253
the projected growth is 6%.
The actual growth was 8,1%.

00:16:30.374 --> 00:16:34.741
This is a 2% margin.

00:16:35.296 --> 00:16:41.361
As a Minister of Finance,
I need precise projections.

00:16:41.642 --> 00:16:47.401
The projections were always
lower than the actual growth.

00:16:47.757 --> 00:16:51.554
At least for the last 2 years. This
applies to international reports too.

00:16:52.007 --> 00:16:58.151
The system conveys
either pessimism or optimism.

00:16:58.614 --> 00:17:04.590
Such data

00:17:05.090 --> 00:17:10.463
can lead to wrong decisions

00:17:10.892 --> 00:17:16.226
by the government or the ministry
that suggests certain fiscal measures.

00:17:16.638 --> 00:17:23.976
If the growth is lower,
the fiscal space is bigger

00:17:24.392 --> 00:17:30.219
and the Minister suggests
bigger spending,

00:17:30.634 --> 00:17:32.806
pro-cycle etc.

00:17:32.927 --> 00:17:37.475
And then it turns out
that the projection was bigger.

00:17:38.265 --> 00:17:41.908
Who is responsible for this?

00:17:42.403 --> 00:17:44.922
Probably the Minister or
the government that lead

00:17:45.073 --> 00:17:46.907
a wrong fiscal policy

00:17:47.195 --> 00:17:49.436
based on the actual
economic growth.

00:17:49.811 --> 00:17:55.828
I can confirm

00:17:56.241 --> 00:18:02.005
that I was thoroughly professional
and the government

00:18:02.142 --> 00:18:06.805
want an exact projection
of the economic growth.

00:18:06.926 --> 00:18:11.483
But I agree that the risk
of wrong projections

00:18:12.142 --> 00:18:16.441
in the time of crisis
such as an epidemic

00:18:16.562 --> 00:18:21.884
or the war is bigger.

00:18:22.165 --> 00:18:26.483
Umar, IMF and OECD

00:18:26.793 --> 00:18:33.628
try to take these events
into the account.

00:18:35.340 --> 00:18:38.695
They have severe
financial consequences.

00:18:39.820 --> 00:18:42.840
There's no big story here.

00:18:43.035 --> 00:18:48.642
Only what I've already discussed.

00:18:49.086 --> 00:18:53.028
The risks are bigger
and more important.

00:18:53.249 --> 00:18:56.136
I hope that this growth
is the real deal.

00:18:56.324 --> 00:18:59.750
But it also shows
pessimism and optimism in the society.

00:19:00.142 --> 00:19:06.513
I wonder what would happen
if the projections were higher.

00:19:06.634 --> 00:19:12.247
I don't believe this caused
a major catastrophe.

00:19:14.212 --> 00:19:16.996
That's it, thank you.
-Thank you, Minister.

00:19:17.642 --> 00:19:20.678
There are no further questions.

00:19:22.892 --> 00:19:27.424
If that's all, I'd like
to conclude this press conference.

00:19:27.713 --> 00:19:33.603
Thank you
for your time and interest.